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The Myth of the Mid-Term Turnover

By Kathy Gill, About.com

It's time to put to bed the idea that mid-term elections where voters toss out the party in power is a common and expected event. It's not. All you have to do is check out this chart that shows the party in power since 1945.

Having the Congress and Presidency in the hands of the same party is not the norm. Only 12 times (24 years) in the past 60 years have Congress and the Presidency been controlled by the same party.

Having Congress split between two parties is not the norm. Only 10 years (five times) in the past 60 years have the House and Senate been controlled by different parties.

And mid-term elections have not usually led to a turnover, at least not in the past 60 years. There have been 30 elections in this period ... 15 of those would be "mid-term" and only six of them have seen a turnover.

What else isn't "normal"? Having both Houses of Congress turn over in one election. It's happened four times in the past 60 years -- in 1994 and 2006 ... and 60 years ago, in 1946 and 1948. What does that tell you about the state of politics today?

And we went 26 years without a change in the party in power in Congress (1954-80)! The House had no change from 1948-1994.

  • In 2006 - mid-term - Ds took both Houses
  • In 2002 - mid-term - Rs took the Senate (51)
  • In 2000 - not mid-term - Ds took the Senate only because the Veep could break a tie or an Independent caucused with the Ds
  • In 1994 - mid-term - Rs took both Houses
  • In 1986 - mid-term - Ds took Senate (55)
  • In 1980 - not mid-term - Rs took Senate (53)
  • In 1954 - mid-term - Ds took the Senate (48)
  • In 1952 - not mid-term - Rs took the Senate (48)
  • In 1948 - mid-term - Ds took both Houses
  • In 1946 - not mid-term - Rs took both Houses
So why do you think politicians and pundits parrot this myth?

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